(Posted Sat., April 28) -- Earlier this week I spent some time with another of my colleagues from the Chicagoland area, Dana Lyons. Some of you were either at or have watched the video of our discussion from the Chicago Resource Expo last October (it's further down on this home page!) Thus far, Dana's assessment of things is looking good, as we have now ticked a bit above the key 3% level on the 10-year Treasury and most signs point to higher yields still to come.
Dana chiefly uses technical and cycle analysis to argue that we most likely HAVE seen the end of the near-four decade bull market in Treasuries (though we must first convincingly clear the resistance areas he refers to, which I have also posted here.) The question on all our minds, of course, is whether the Fed will continue to let nature takes its course. . .or if at some point it will feel compelled once again to suppress interest rates. Time will tell!
For now, though, we are clearly moving more toward that Stagflation Lite mode again which will continue to--among other things--cause long-term yields still to slug their way at least a bit higher.