OUR TRACK RECORD
(And a little bit more
about The National Investor)
If you’re like most investors looking for a source of information on which you can rely, you want to know how to separate the wheat from the chaff. And—if you’re like me—you are being bombarded constantly with sales pitches from the innumerable financial publications in existence today. Each of these solicitations has one thing in common; it claims that—if only you’d listened to their advice in the recent past—you’d be filthy rich. So, don’t miss out any longer: subscribe!
A few of these are on the level. However, most are not. For instance, there are many pundits hawking their wares currently who claim that their bear market strategies are the cat’s meow. Maybe they are. Yet, what most of these mailings usually fail to tell you is that the particular newsletter writer has for YEARS been singing the same tune. In particular, those now claiming they called the bear market and the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble certainly did do so—MANY YEARS AGO! Those unfortunate enough to have followed some of this advice during the 1990’s don’t have much money left to invest, even if these characters’ advice is finally right!
Conversely, those who have been perpetually bullish on the stock market have more recently been revealed to be “Johnny-one-notes” who seem unable to recognize sea changes in the markets. Sure, some of these guys made a pile of money for their subscribers during the great bull market. Most, though, have in the last two and a half years managed to give much of it back!
Now, I will not pretend here to get every single call right. I don’t. For example, I felt there was a better than even chance that the turmoil in the financial markets of late 1998 was then ushering in a new bear market, and that the long-awaited unwinding of the debt and asset bubbles was at hand. By January, 1999, however—as others were pointing to Y2K as a reason why the markets would plunge—I was telling subscribers that the stock market would have a HUGE year. It did.
I can tell you, though (as you’ll see further along) that The National Investor has one of the higher batting averages over the last several years of any newsletter out there. Further—as you can ascertain from perusing many of the items I have archived on this site—our “big picture” view of and advice on the markets generally has been more accurate than those of either the “perma-bulls” or “perma-bears.” The reason for this is simple: I DON’T HAVE TO MAKE A CASE FOR ANYTHING I DON’T BELIEVE. I’m not a retail broker who has to sell stocks for a living. Neither do I handle precious metals: thus, I don’t have to make a “case” for them either. I call things as I see them.
That ability—and the unique perspective I give my subscribers on how to anticipate the markets’ broad trends—is really putting us on the map.
You don’t have to take my word for all this. The well-known Hulbert Financial Digest now covers The National Investor, adding us to the list of approximately 160 publications it covers. According to its calculations, my overall recommendations during 2001 returned an average of 18.4% for subscribers; this, of course, compares quite favorably with the dismal performances of the major stock market indices and the advice given elsewhere.
In addition to the market commentary, news, consumer/investor tips and much more I provide regularly to subscribers, I provide them with both “asset allocation” strategies based on my current view of the markets, along with specific recommendations on individual stocks. From time to time I also recommend mutual funds and options, the latter particularly intended for those who have the time and risk tolerance to trade them.
For the most part, however, I stick with a strategy of careful selection of individual companies in a variety of sectors, most of which are appropriate for those investors who do NOT have the time to sit each and every day and follow their portfolios as a “pro” would do. In addition, between each issue of the “hard copy” of the newsletter, I provide periodic updates via both a telephone Hotline, and a supplementary e-mail service; these keep subscribers current not only on market news, but also provide immediate instructions any time there is a reason to change my existing recommendations IN ANY WAY between issues of the newsletter.
In summation, our investment philosophy and approach is based on:
n COMPLETE independence from any “special interests,” products or pre-conceived points of view.
n The developing of a macroeconomic or “big picture” view of the health of and direction of the various markets: bonds, stocks, precious metals, etc.
n The determination of SPECIFIC securities/investments for this environment, taking into account as well asset allocation models so as to, in particular, limit overall portfolio down side risk.
PAST RECOMMENDATIONS
Since the inauguration of The National Investor in mid-1996, the following is a listing of individual stock, mutual fund and option recommendations I’ve made to date (as of November, 2002.) This list includes ONLY those securities not still under active recommendation.
In the case of
both mutual funds and stocks, returns listed include any dividends paid during the period
of coverage. In addition, those listed
with an asterisk (*) have returns reported based on explicit trading recommendations made
during coverage.
Sir John Templeton, one of the most successful stock market investors of the 20th Century, once told an interviewer that the “secret to his success” was careful stock analysis and value-oriented investing which gave him a lifetime “batting average” of .600. He said that, in the end, when he was able to get six out of ten stocks right, he was successful.
Tallying up the
individual stock recommendations below, since 1996, you’ll find an overall “batting
average” for Yours Truly in The National Investor of .684!
Overall, in
the lists of individual stocks below, we’ve had 67 winners, 29 losers and two
“ties.” For those stocks rated by
me at my initial recommendation as either growth or speculative, the score is 46-25-2, or
a 63% success rate. For conservative stocks,
it’s an astounding 21-4-0, or 84%.
1996
Initial Final
STOCKS Purch. Date Date Sold Gain/Loss %
Northgate
Expl. (NYSE-NGX)
7/3/96
8/22/96
EVEN
Oak
Technology (NASD-OAKT)
7/3/96
10/1/96
+17.6%
Phelps Dodge
(NYSE-PDG)
7/22/96
10/18/96
+
13.6%
Foxmeyer
Health (NYSE-FOX)
9/13/96
10/4/96
-
14.3%
KLA
Instruments (NASD-KLAC)
9/16/96
10/2/96
+16.0%
1997
Initial Final
STOCKS Purch. Date Date Sold Gain/Loss %
PrePaid
Legal (AMEX-PPD)
11/22/96
3/24/97
+31.9%
Plum Creek
Timber (NYSE-PCL)
7/3/96
4/24/97
+25.4%
Valero
Energy (NYSE-VLO)
9/3/96
4/24/97
+66.3%
Mariner
Health (NASD-MRNR) 10/11/96
5/7/97
+46.8%
Amer.
Oncology (NASD-AORI)
4/23/97
7/1/97
+102.3%
Semitool
(NASD-SMTL)
7/3/96
9/17/97
+40.0%
Siskon Gold
(NASD-SISK)
8/5/96
10/27/97
-46.0%*
Dakota
Mining (AMEX-DKT)
3/5/97
10/27/97
-
72.7%
Conmed Corp.
(NASD-CNMD)
7/25/96
10/27/97
+32.6%
Metatec
(NASD-META)
7/3/96
12/1/97
-50.0%
1998
Initial Final
STOCKS Purch. Date Date Sold Gain/Loss %
Alaska Air
(NYSE-ALK)
10/22/96
2/17/98
+174.3%
Central
Sprinkler (NASD-CNSP)
12/10/97
3/6/98
-
17.4%
Ryland Group
(NYSE-RYL)
4/23/97
4/24/98
+111.9%
Int’l.
Aluminum (NYSE-IAL)
11/4/96
5/27/98
+42.2%
Lyondell
Petrochem (NYSE-LYO)
12/20/96
5/27/98
+47.5%
Steel Tech.
(NASD-STTX)
4/9/97
5/27/98
+27.7%
Armco
(NYSE-AS)
4/9/97
5/27/98
+40.7%
Ion Laser
Tech. (AMEX-ILT)
1/5/98
8/17/98
-
17.4%
Prime
Resources (AMEX-PRU)
9/30/97
10/5/98
+4.2%
Barrick Gold
(NYSE-ABX)
9/24/98
10/5/98
+10.5%
Freeport M
Cu&Au (NYSE-FCX)
9/24/98
10/5/98
-
6.5%
Getchell
Gold (AMEX-GGO)
9/24/98
10/5/98
+34.5%
Newmont
Mining (NYSE-NEM)
9/24/98
10/5/98
+33.9%
ALTA Gold
(NASD-ALTA)
11/27/96
11/9/98
- 46.7%
Thermo Tech
(NASD-TTRIF)
4/6/98
11/9/98
-
42.5%*
(NOTE 1: In February, 1998 and again in September, 1998 I
advised purchasing several gold mining share-related call options, each of which would
have been sold at a healthy profit averaging 70% over five weeks, for those who followed
my calls.)
1999
Initial Final
STOCKS Purch. Date Date Sold Gain/Loss %
Sirrom
Capital (NYSE-SIR)
8/24/98
1/20/99
+6.5%
UTI Energy
(AMEX-UTI)
3/23/98
4/20/99
-
36.5%
Precision
Drilling (NYSE-PDS)
3/23/98
4/20/99
-
26.0%
Newmont
Mining (NYSE-NEM)
12/31/98
4/20/99
+22.4%
Homestake
Mining (NYSE-HM)
12/31/98
4/20/99
+1.4%
Placer Dome
(NYSE-PDG)
12/31/98
4/20/99
+14.9%
Barrick Gold
(NYSE-ABX)
4/9/99
4/20/99
+11.9%
Viasoft
(NASD-VIAS)
2/25/99
8/2/99
+66.7%
Placer Dome
(NYSE-PDG)
6/28/99
10/5/99
+49.3%
Newmont
Mining (NYSE-NEM)
6/28/99
10/5/99
+57.8%
MacM.
Bloedel (NASD-MMBLF)
1/3/97
11/1/99
+28.4%
Phosphate
Res. (NYSE-FLP)
12/3/96
12/9/99
-
20.4%
Western
P&E (NASD-WPEC)
2/5/97
12/9/99
-
69.9%
AGISS Corp.
(NASD-AGCR)
8/19/97
12/9/99
+35.0%*
Info.
Architects (NASD-IARC)
2/25/99
12/9/99
-
10.8%
Metamor
(NASD-MMWW)
3/29/99
12/13/99
+157.1%
Zitel
(NASD-ZITL)
3/6/98
12/31/99
+69.5%*
(NOTE 1: In January, June and—here’s the BIG ONE—October,
1999, I recommended selling call options related to gold mining shares I had a few weeks’
previously, in each case, recommended buying. All
positions turned in outstanding gains; the biggest were during the period from September
21-Octiber 5, where the THREE WEEK PROFIT (AVERAGE) FOR EACH CONTRACT WAS 264.5%!)
(NOTE 2: During late 1998 and 1999, the only mutual fund
under active trading recommendation was the American Century-Benham Target 2025 Fund.)
2000
Initial Final
STOCKS Purch. Date Date Sold Gain/Loss %
ACTV, Inc. (NASD-IATV)
4/14/99
1/3/00
+157.1%
Energy Biosys. (NASD-ENBC)
5/22/97
1/6/00
-
60.9%
Corixa Corp. (NASDAQ-CRXA)
10/8/99
2/10/00
+300.0%
Jannock, Ltd. (NASDAQ-JANNF)
12/10/97
2/16/00
+12.8%
Ashton Tech. (NASDAQ-ASTN)
4/19/99
4/24/00
- 32.1%
Viasoft (NASDAQ-VIAS)
1/19/00
5/1/00
+62.5%
Protocol Sys. (NASDAQ-PCOL)
7/14/98
5/26/00
+81.9%
Tidewater (NYSE-TDW)
9/11/96
6/16/00
+
6.5%
Evergreen Res. (NASDAQ-EVER)
8/27/97
6/16/00
+313.6%*
AmeriPath (NASDAQ-PATH)
12/7/98
8/9/00
+160.5%
KCS Energy (NYSE-KCS)
8/9/99
8/9/00
- 11.1%
NZ Corporation (AMEX-NZ)
3/23/98
10/16/00 -
36.7%
Weyerhaeuser (NYSE-WY)
11/1/99
10/16/00
- 34.5%
Bergen Brunswig (NYSE-BBC)
6/21/00
12/5/00
+135.3%
Lindal Homes (NASD-LNDL)
7/2/97
12/14/00
+13.8%
MUTUAL FUNDS SOLD IN JANUARY, 2000:
Home State Y2K Fund
+186.2%
Fidelity Sel. Dev. Communications
+122.4%
Fidelity Sel. Multimedia
+44.1%
Fidelity Sel. Telecom
+66.6%
Fidelity Select Banking
- 10.1%
MUTUAL FUNDS SOLD IN JUNE, 2000:
Fidelity Sel. Industrial Materials
-
14.7%
MUTUAL FUNDS SOLD IN SEPT., 2000:
Oppenheimer Gold & Precious
Minerals
+
78.5%*
2001
Initial Final
STOCKS Purch. Date Date Sold Gain/Loss %
US Oncology (NASD-USON)
7/1/98
2/5/01
+62.5%*
Semitool (NASD-SMTL)
11/17/00
2/5/01
+9.3%
Safeguard Scientific (NYSE-SFE) 12/8/00
2/5/01
+31.3%
Internet Capital (NASD-ICGE) 12/8/00
2/5/01
-
14.2%
Comp. Horizons (NASD-CHRZ)
2/25/99
2/7/01
+84.0%*
Informix (NASD-IFMX)
4/14/99
2/7/01
-
12.2%
Modis Prof. Services (NYSE-MPS)
12/10/99
2/7/01
-
60.0%
ACTV, Inc. (NASD-IATV) 11/17/00
2/7/01
-
12.4%
Ryland Group (NYSE-RYL)
2/17/00
4/30/01
+180.9%
Informix (NASD-IFMX)
3/19/01
5/3/01
EVEN
Comp. Horizons (NASD-CHRZ)
3/19/01
5/3/01
+26.7%
Safeguard Scientific (NYSE-SFE)
3/19/01
5/3/01
+39.0%
Internet Capital (NASD-ICGE)
3/19/01
5/3/01
+55.6%
Orgon Trail Fin’l. (NASD-OTFC) 4/14/99
5/8/01
+20.1%
Otter Tail Power (NASD-OTTR) 10/22/97
6/29/01
+88.4%
McMoran Expl. (NYSE-MMR)
1/5/98
8/13/01
- 52.2%
Price Legacy (AMEX-XLG)
4/1/98
9/26/01
- 36.5%
New Plan Excel (NYSE-NXL)
9/3/96
10/5/01
+89.6%
Winston Hotels (NYSE-WXH)
7/3/96
10/5/01
+22.0%
Suburban Lodges (NASD-SLAM) 1/5/98
10/5/01
-54.7%
Corixa Corp. (NASD-CRXA)
9/26/01
10/5/01
+51.5%
Standard Pacific (NYSE-SPF)
12/4/98
10/5/01
+89.1%
Universal Health (NYSE-UHT)
8/2/96
12/26/01
+76.3%
MUTUAL FUNDS SOLD IN
JANUARY, 2001:
Fidelity Sel.
Multimedia
+9.8%
Fidelity
Select Dev. Communications
+14.7%
MUTUAL FUNDS SOLD IN APRIL,
2001:
Fidelity
Sel. Defense/Aerospace
+17.3%
Fidelity
Sel. Energy Service
+49.6%
Fidelity
Sel. Gold
-
14.8%
Fidelity
Sel. Health Care
+18.1%
Fidelity
Sel. Natural Gas
+68.8%
Fidelity
Sel. Technology
-
19.7%
(NOTE: That Spring, I informed my readers that, for the
foreseeable future, I would cease keeping ANY mutual funds under active recommendation, as
I believed at the time—and still tend to believe—that most underperform the
broader market. Further, even in the case of
sector funds, my view that a longer-term bear market had set in also compelled me to stick
exclusively with individual stocks. Beginning
in late 2002, however, I will be making trading recommendations of Exchange-Traded Funds
(ETF’s) in addition to stocks. HOWEVER,
for those who still wish to trade mutual funds, I continue to lead them through my
commentary on the markets and various sectors, for those whishing to invest this way. Of course, once it appears that the bearish trend
has concluded, I have not ruled out bringing back more explicit mutual fund
recommendations.)
2002 (through early
November)
Initial Final
STOCKS Purch. Date Date Sold Gain/Loss %
Barrick Gold (NYSE-ABX)
MISC.
6/7/02
+75.8%*
Lennox International (NYSE-LII)
1/21/00
6/21/02
+90.3%
Placer Dome (NYSE-PDG)
MISC.
7/9/02
+98.2%*
Penn Virginia (NYSE-PVA)
10/11/01
7/20/02
+25.1%
Equity Residential (NYSE-EQR)
11/4/96
9/3/02
+69.8%
US Oncology (NASD-USON)
7/20/01
9/3/02
+1.8%
Scientific Tech. (NASD-STIZ)
3/19/01
9/3/02
-
36.7%
Internet Capital (NASD-ICGE)
8/2/01
9/3/02
-
82.7%
Xcel Energy (NYSE-XEL)
7/16/02
9/3/02
- 33.2%
Ingles Markets (NASD-IMKTA)
3/23/98 9/12/02
+11.8%
Newmont Mining (NYSE-NEM)
MISC.
11/8/02
+192.8%*
Bema Gold (AMEX-BGO)
9/26/01
11/8/02
+133.3%
Corixa Corp. (NASD-CRXA)
3/20/02
11/8/02
+35.0%
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